Mr.Chips Picks | EPL Chelsea vs Newcastle

Mr.Chips Picks | EPL Chelsea vs Newcastle

Match Time: 28th May 2023, 3:30PM UTC

Chelsea, as a powerhouse in the English Premier League, has been performing disappointingly this season, leaving fans astonished. Currently, they sit in 12th place with a record of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses, accumulating 43 points. Chelsea's position in the league suggests that they have no ambitions left and it is expected that they will only focus on the league in the next season. Recently, the team's form has been terrible, with only 1 win, 1 draw, and 8 losses in their last 10 matches, conceding 20 goals while scoring only 8. This season, Chelsea seems to have lost the strength they once had, and their home performances have been disappointing.

Since returning to the Premier League in 2017, Newcastle United has been striving to avoid relegation. Last season, they were consistently at the bottom of the league and were at risk of relegation. However, with the arrival of Middle Eastern investors at St. James' Park, Newcastle United became the richest team in football overnight.

These two teams have faced each other 171 times in history, with Chelsea holding the upper hand with 76 wins, 40 draws, and 55 losses. In the first encounter of this season's Premier League, Newcastle United defeated Chelsea 1-0 as visitors, ending Chelsea's four-match winning streak against them. At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea has a perfect record of 10 wins in their last 10 matches against Newcastle United.

In the midweek fixtures, Chelsea suffered a 4-1 defeat to Manchester United away, extending their losing streak, while Newcastle United secured a 0-0 draw at home against Brighton, securing a top-four finish in the Premier League with one match to spare.

Key Points of the match:


  1. In the past 5 matches with similar starting conditions, Chelsea won 4 of them.
  2. Form: Suffered a disastrous defeat to Manchester City in the last match, with 8 losses in the last 10 games, showing a dismal form;
  3. Defense: Conceded 4 goals in the previous league match and an average of 2 goals per game in the last 10 matches, indicating a significant decline in defensive quality;
  4. Attack: Failed to score in 5 out of the last 10 matches, highlighting the problem of a blunt forward line;
  5. Manager: Frank Lampard's coaching abilities have not been impressive, as his coaching tenure with multiple teams has ended in failure;
  6. Fighting spirit: Currently positioned in the lower-middle of the league table, with no ambitions left, the team has lost its fighting spirit;
  7. Probability: With the odds of a home win at 2.90, the expected chance of winning is 34%, but the team's actual win rate is only 1%, performing far below expectations.

Newcastle United

  1. Fighting spirit: Currently in the third position in the league table, Newcastle United has a great opportunity to compete for a Champions League spot, showing strong fighting spirit;
  2. Head-to-head: In the first leg of the season, Newcastle United won 1-0 against Chelsea at home, providing valuable experience for this rematch;
  3. Form: Only lost 2 matches out of the last 10, winning 6 of them, maintaining a stable form;
  4. Away performance: Only lost 1 match in the last 6 away matches, with 4 successful victories, showing decent strength in away games;
  5. Probability: With the odds of an away win at 2.38, the expected chance of winning is 42%, while the team's actual win rate reaches 65%, exceeding expectations;
  6. Momentum: In 18 matches this season where Newcastle United took the lead, they only
  7. suffered 1 defeat and won 16 of them.
  8. Injuries: Midfielders Matt Ritchie, Ryan Fraser, Isaac Hayden, defenders Fabian Schär, and Lascelles are all carrying injuries, raising doubts about their availability for this match.

In their last 5 meetings, Chelsea has the advantage with 4 wins and 1 loss. Chelsea will rely on the attacking trio of Havertz, Werner, and Havertz to provide firepower, while Newcastle United will rely on the attacking prowess of forwards Callum Wilson and Miguel Almiron. Chelsea has the advantage of playing at home and also holds the upper hand in the historical head-to-head record. Therefore, they are expected to have a theoretically greater chance of winning. This match promises to be a fierce battle, with both teams giving their all to secure a victory and would be trying their best to get on the score sheet!

Mr.Chips Picks Both teams to Score!